Short-term glass prices or repeated shocks
Time：2019-10-12; Read：2434
In the near future, the overall price trend of glass spot market is fair, and some regions still have a small increase. However, it is worth noting that the glass futures price after August has a certain pullback compared with the earlier period. The main reason is that some production lines in the northern region are expected to stop production in the early period of the market, but at present, it is difficult to implement in the short term, which causes the market to be worried about the future market, and consequently the confidence declines.
On the supply side, it is expected that it will be very difficult for manufacturers to take the initiative in large-scale water cooling repair in the short term. Mainly at present, the gross profit of the production enterprises has returned to a high level, the cash flow of the manufacturers is relatively abundant, the pressure of capital is not great, and the willingness of water cooling repair will be weak. Overall, short-term float glass production capacity will not change significantly.
On the demand side, the sales level of float glass in the second half of the year is slightly lower than that in the same period of 2018. At present, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises is still acceptable, but it is difficult to increase significantly in the follow-up.
In terms of inventory, the inventory of glass manufacturers has been significantly reduced since June, but the social inventory has not been effectively digested by the terminal market. If there is no significant increase in demand side, the subsequent inventory digestion will be a slow process. At present, the purchasing speed of traders and processing enterprises has slowed down. Once the inventory of manufacturers starts to accumulate again, in order to ease the inventory pressure, spot prices may usher in a significant adjustment. Especially at present, the level of social inventory of float glass is not low, which will increase the difficulty of manufacturers to pressure inventory to channels.
In summary, the production capacity of float glass has returned to a high level again at present, and it is difficult to change significantly in the short term. At present, the order situation of downstream processing enterprises is still acceptable, but the short-term increment is limited, and the subsequent social inventory digestion process is expected to be relatively slow.
